Honey Supply Risk Index
Which varieties will climate change make scarce — and which are already priced for it?
Not all honey is equally vulnerable to a changing climate. [Tupelo honey](/honey/tupelo-honey) grows in one river basin in Florida. [Sage honey](/honey/sage-honey) grows in one state's coastal chaparral. Both are under existential pressure — and neither's current price fully reflects it. Meanwhile, [manuka honey](/honey/new-zealand-manuka-umf-15) commands a $55 average price despite having lower supply risk than [heather](/honey/heather-honey), [sourwood](/honey/sourwood-honey), or [blueberry honey](/honey/blueberry-honey).
The Honey Supply Risk Index scores 16 varieties across three factors to answer a simple question: which honeys should you buy while you still can, and which are safe staples?
The Three-Factor Framework
Each variety is scored on three dimensions. Climate Threat is weighted most heavily (2.5×) because it is the direction of travel — even a geographically distributed variety can face concentrated risk if its ecosystem type is globally threatened.
Risk Rankings — All 16 Varieties
Sorted highest to lowest composite risk score.
Risk Map: Concentration vs. Climate Threat
Each bubble is one floral source; size = number of catalog varieties. Upper-right quadrant = highest combined risk.
Bubble size ∝ number of catalog varieties. Jitter applied where two varieties share identical G/C values.
Critical Zone: Four Varieties in Jeopardy
Sea-level rise + altered swamp hydrology
Megadrought + megafire destroying chaparral
California water scarcity — groves abandoned
Erratic spring frost + summer Appalachian drought
Bloom–bee synchrony breakdown as spring warms unevenly
The Price Anomaly: Risk vs. Market Price
If supply risk and price were perfectly correlated, the most climate-vulnerable honeys would be the most expensive. They aren't — and the gaps reveal which honeys are misvalued.
Chaparral under megadrought + megafire — ecosystem-level risk at commodity pricing
California water scarcity will force grove abandonment; current price reflects supply abundance, not trend
Phenological mismatch risk not yet priced in; premium limited by volume
[Manuka honey](/honey/new-zealand-manuka-umf-15) scores moderate risk (52/100) — New Zealand is actively scaling cultivation and the shrub is hardy. The $55+ average price is driven entirely by MGO marketing premium and UMF/MGO testing costs, not by genuine supply scarcity risk. By contrast, [heather honey](/honey/heather-honey) ($26/jar, score 68) and [sourwood](/honey/sourwood-honey) ($23/jar, score 80) are both more climate-vulnerable and cheaper.
Full Index — All 16 Varieties
| Variety | G | W | C | Score | Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tupelo Apalachicola River, FL | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100 | $33 |
| Sage California coastal chaparral | 5 | 4 | 5 | 95 | $20 |
| Avocado California & Hawaii | 4 | 4 | 5 | 88 | $19 |
| Sourwood Appalachian ridge, NC/TN/GA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 80 | $23 |
| Blueberry Maine, NJ, MI, Pacific NW | 4 | 4 | 4 | 80 | $18 |
| Orange Blossom FL, CA, Spain, Mexico | 3 | 4 | 4 | 73 | $17 |
| Heather Scotland, Ireland, N. Europe | 3 | 3 | 4 | 68 | $26 |
| Linden Central & Eastern Europe | 2 | 5 | 3 | 63 | $20 |
| Eucalyptus Australia, CA, Spain | 2 | 2 | 4 | 57 | $19 |
| Lavender Provence, Spain, Tuscany | 2 | 3 | 3 | 53 | $23 |
| Chestnut Italy, France, Spain | 2 | 3 | 3 | 53 | $23 |
| Manuka New Zealand, SE Australia | 3 | 3 | 2 | 52 | $55 |
| Buckwheat NY, PA, MN, Canada, Europe | 2 | 2 | 3 | 48 | $17 |
| Acacia Eastern & Central Europe | 1 | 3 | 2 | 38 | $19 |
| Clover Temperate zones globally | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28 | $14 |
| Wildflower Everywhere temperate | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | $17 |
G = Geographic Concentration · W = Harvest Window Risk · C = Climate Threat · Score = (G×2 + W×1.5 + C×2.5) / 30 × 100
Resilient Staples: The Safe Harbors
Three varieties score below 40 — genuinely resilient across all three dimensions.
[Wildflower honey's](/honey/wildflower-honey) resilience is structural, not accidental. A [wildflower honey](/honey/wildflower-honey) jar contains pollen from dozens of species across an entire season. When one plant fails, others compensate — botanical diversity is the hedge. This is the same logic behind multi-factor financial portfolios and polyculture farming. By contrast, specialty varieties like [tupelo](/honey/tupelo-honey) or [sage honey](/honey/sage-honey) depend entirely on single botanical sources.
Practical Pantry Strategy
These will become harder to source and more expensive. Buy from small US producers — they're transparent about harvest conditions and you'll know when seasons are poor.
High risk but not yet in crisis. Follow producers in these regions — a poor season is now meaningful news, not a routine weather complaint.
Moderate risk, manageable supply. Don't overpay for manuka's MGO marketing — there are cheaper high-quality options in this tier.
Low supply risk, globally sourced. These are your everyday cooking honeys — buy the best quality you can afford but don't worry about stockpiling.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which honey is most at risk from climate change?▾
Why is manuka honey so expensive if its supply risk is moderate?▾
Why is tupelo honey the highest-risk variety?▾
Is sage honey really more climate-vulnerable than manuka?▾
What does "geographic concentration" mean for honey supply risk?▾
Will clover and wildflower honey always be available?▾
How was the Honey Supply Risk Index calculated?▾
Should I buy extra tupelo or sourwood honey now before prices rise?▾
Edited by Sam French · Raw Honey Guide Editorial Team
Source reviewed against primary literature and official guidance where available. Health content is educational, not medical advice, and does not replace a licensed clinician.